So the Iowan results are in, and it may not be just what you expected. Now I know that the Trump supporters have already headed for their escape hatches. All we have heard is how Trump will win Iowa based on the polling.
I have never put a lot of faith in polling, and in the case of Trump’s substantial lead in the polling going into the first actual votes to be cast, it was easy to see the pollsters, were polling outside of Republican voters.
So what happened Trump supporters?
Ted Cruz got 28%, Trump got 24%, and Rubio came in a strong third with 23%.
Donald Trump should not be so concerned with the fact that Ted Cruz won Iowa by 4%, but he should be scared to death that Marco Rubio was only 1% point behind him. Trump now has to fight a two front war.
I believe this trend will continue as more of the so-called “ESTABLISHMENT” candidates fall out of the race. Donald Trump’s support is rock solid, his supporters are fanatical, but I don’t see Trump benefiting from people like Gov. Kasich dropping out, but I can see his supporters transferring their support to a Rubio or a Bush.
I made a prediction that Donald Trump would find a reason to leave the race before April 15th, I am rethinking that date now, but I will hold to it. I still think as he loses, and after all, second place is just the first loser, as he loses more of these early primaries, his pride will force him to get out before it is completely obvious that he has no chance to win.
So now I open the conversation for all of the Trump-ets to tell us how, after months of telling us how important Trump’s “TREMENDOUS” win in Iowa was going to be, that this loss means nothing. Now is when you get to use your favorite escape hatch.
Not that surprised that Trump came in second. I think with private voting he does better. The whole caucus process seems more socially driven to me. For instance, what if your boss or a business client is caucused under a certain candidate? I can see that scenario having influence.
Pretty surprised with the Rubio result I didn’t think he would do so well. I can’t see him up against Hillary though. I can see Hillary turning him over her knee and spanking him. Not a pretty sight.
There is just something about Rubio that doesn’t seem presidential. Maybe it’s just that he appears too young, I don’t know.
No big surprise that Cruz won Iowa. He had to. He put everything into his ground game here, and he appealed much more to the so-called “evangelicals” than any other candidate. But, on to New Hampshire- Cruz will do poorly there.
More interesting is the performance of Rubio. It is my guess that the GOP “establishment” made a pitch to Iowa party leaders to unite behind one establishment candidate, and since Bush, Kasich and Christy are going nowhere, Rubio was the logical choice. Remember, in a caucus, there is no voting anonymity- and there is cajoling. I’m sure there was pressure exerted on establishment-oriented caucus-goer’s to go with Rubio.
But I don’t think it bodes well for the establishment wing. If you add-up the percentages garnered by major outsiders (Cruz, Trump, Carson), it comes to over 60%. Let’s suppose Rubio prevails in the establishment wing. It probably won’t matter in the end, because it is highly likely that whomever wins the “outsider” race, the supporters of the other two will go with the winner. A Cruz or Carson voter will align with Trump, a Trump voter with Cruz, and a Carson supporter with either of the above. Rubio will not siphon many votes from the “outsider” bloc.
I might note that Trump garnered higher totals in Iowa than any GOP candidate in the history of the caucus- except Cruz. This was a turnout election, and bodes well for the GOP in the general.
It is interesting that Hillary can barely beat a 74-year-old self-acclaimed socialist from Vermont, with little name recognition and who isn’t even a member of her party. Nevertheless, I believe that this was Sanders’ high-water-mark. If you were to draw a line from Washington DC to the Texas panhandle, I doubt that Sanders can carry any state below that line. Nor do I think that he can carry New York or New Jersey. We’ll see.
I like Sanders. It’s interesting how the people who are hurt the most by no unions, no health care, no overtime, no environmental protection and no jobs are willing to shill and vote for people who work against them and their kids the most just to satisfy their primitive racial and religious resentments.
Individual responsibility, free market capitalism, private property rights and a coherent national identity built America. Sanders is nothing more than a hate-America Marxist- in other words, a common thief.
Well, which is it Rick? Is Sanders a self-acclaimed socialist* as you labeled him at 9:31 AM or a hate-America Marxist as you called him about two hours later?
*Trump is the self-acclaimed candidate. He’s the only one who routines praises himself enthusiastically and publicly. Surely you mean self-proclaimed, but never mind.
Well, which is it Rick? Is Sanders a self-acclaimed socialist* as you labeled him at 9:31 AM or a hate-America Marxist as you called him about two hours later?
You obviously haven’t read Marx. “Socialism” is the transitional stage between capitalism and communism. So he is both. And both are decidedly anti-American.
I pray that he is the Dems candidate- he’d carry about six states. But, if Hillary has to drop out, the party establishment would never let him win. They’d resurrect Biden or Kerry.
If according to Marxist theory socialism is a transitory stage between capitalism and communism, then socialism can be likened to adolescence–a transitional stage between childhood and adulthood. Sanders can’t be both an adolescent and an adult at the same time.
I’m a man child too
FDR was a Socialist who saved America
What polls are you talking about? Iowa was always a long shot for trump. I had assumed he would do very poorly among evangelicals. His second place showing was an absolute win. NH results show he is the real deal. Trump supporters are excited, not heading for the exits. Dude, you need to wake up. This is happening.
If according to Marxist theory socialism is a transitory stage between capitalism and communism, then socialism can be likened to adolescence–a transitional stage between childhood and adulthood. Sanders can’t be both an adolescent and an adult at the same time.
The adolescent falls within the category of man. The Socialist falls within the category of Marxist. They are both stages in the development toward an end.
In NH, Trump carried virtually every demographic. He has wide appeal.
What Sanders did to Hillary is incredible. While she will blame her staff and state operatives, the fact is that she is quite simply an unappealing candidate.
It is interesting how both Sanders and Hilary loved to tout the Obama “recovery,” but now that they’re campaigning all you hear is gloom-and-doom; low wages, high unemployment, under-employment and so on. Well, who has been president for the past seven years? Obama.
Now the media will start to push for Kasich as the “establishment” standard-bearer. Good luck with that. Supposedly, Bush has a strong “ground game” in South Carolina. He’ll have the backing of Mr. Half Percent, Lindsey Graham. I doubt that it will help. This is a “change” election, and nobody with the last name of Bush can possibly represent change. I expect Trump to dominate in S.C., although Cruz could siphon-off some conservative votes.
South Carolina could be do-or-die for both of the supposed pre-primary media front runners, Hillary and Bush. Can Sanders carry a significant percentage of the black vote? If so, he’ll win, and that will be the end of Hillary. Are there enough establishment moderates in South Carolina to carry Bush to victory over Trump? Highly doubtful. And that will be the end for the “steady hand.”
Kasich is the only once who doesn’t sound like he’s pandering to women/minority hating angry white men
http://youtu.be/v_u75GcYows
I will be doing another 35-40 mile walk on March 13th 2016 if you want to attend feel free to contact me.Godbless you and the USA.
The video above is one of others to show what I did that day.